| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: WED 07 MAR 2018 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 315 PM 07 MAR 2018
EARLY CLOSING
Discussion:
An early closing was conducted today.
Updated: 432 AM 07 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 10% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 10% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 65% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 20% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 85% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 15% |
Discussion:
The chance of a full closing has essentially disappeared as forecast confidence in sub-warning level snowfall increased. Also slightly nudged downward the probability of an early closing, but not by much, and still favoring that scenario.
Updated: 433 PM 06 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 30% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 30% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 70% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 20% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 90% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 10% |
Discussion:
We try to avoid rapid adjustments and swings to our forecasts, but unfortunately, the removal of the winter storm warning requires it. School closings are based on both actual weather and human behavior, the latter of which is less predictable, but an adjustment to winter weather headlines in the absence of a shift in expected snow totals will significantly impact the decisions made by administrators.
Updated: 306 PM 06 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 80% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 80% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 85% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 10% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 95% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 5% |
Discussion:
Probabilities have been adjusted upwards based on winter storm warning. 4-8 inches of snow is expected. I am being conservative with the full closing chance because we will likely only see marginal warning criteria.
Updated: 527 AM 05 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 55% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 55% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 70% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 20% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 90% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 10% |
Discussion:
A coastal storm will impact the region Wednesday. Current thinking is that at least 6 inches of snow will fall, causing either a full closing or early closing, depending on how much snow falls early in the day. The main uncertainty at this time is how much rain, if any, will mix in. These details will be elucidated in the coming day.
Snowday Central 