| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: THU 08 MAR 2018 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 950 PM 07 MAR 2018
DELAYED OPENING
| Probability of a Full Closing | 50% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 50% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 100% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 0% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
Increased probability of a full closing to 50% based on new power outage data. That’s about as high as i’m willing to go for day 2 of an event with under 12 inches of snow.
Updated: 838 PM 07 MAR 2018
DELAYED OPENING
| Probability of a Full Closing | 35% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 65% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 100% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 0% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
As of 7:12 pm, a delayed opening is announced. There is a 35% chance of an upgrade to a full closing based on the current picture of radar, high resolution models, roadways, and power outages.
Updated: 534 PM 07 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 10% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 60% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 70% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 30% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
Based on snow not ending until late tonight, there is a solid chance for a delay tomorrow. These probabilities are based on limited analogues from previous situations – and confidence in this forecast is lower than normal because this is a prediction of both weather and human behavior.
Updated: 316 AM 06 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 10% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 40% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 50% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 50% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
There is a moderate chance of impacts Thursday due to the possibility of significant snow continuing from Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, impacting the morning commute.
Snowday Central 