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School: Stony Brook University |
Updated: 514 PM 20 MAR 2018
FULL CLOSING
Discussion:
Full closing for SBU, Wednesday, March 21.
Updated: 338 PM 20 MAR 2018
| Campus Opening | Campus Closing | Probability |
| Normal Time | Normal Time | 5% |
| Normal Time | Early | 10% |
| Late | Normal Time | 0% |
| Late | Early | 0% |
| Closed All Day | – | 85% |
Discussion:
This is shaping out to be a remarkable late season storm. 8-12 inches of snow is likely for Central Long Island, and the only thing that could significantly lower totals is if a lot more rain or sleet mixes in. Full closing probability is raised to 85% based on all data holding strong with this event.
Updated: 425 AM 20 MAR 2018
| Campus Opening | Campus Closing | Probability |
| Normal Time | Normal Time | 10% |
| Normal Time | Early | 15% |
| Late | Normal Time | 0% |
| Late | Early | 0% |
| Closed All Day | – | 75% |
Discussion:
Following the usual pattern here…I am comfortable increasing the probability of a full closing to 75% based on the latest model guidance and the issuance of a winter storm warning. Time of snow onset is the main factor in question. Should school be open, an early closing is very probable.
Updated: 633 PM 19 MAR 2018
| Campus Opening | Campus Closing | Probability |
| Normal Time | Normal Time | 20% |
| Normal Time | Early | 40% |
| Late | Normal Time | 0% |
| Late | Early | 0% |
| Closed All Day | – | 40% |
Discussion:
Details are coming into better focus regarding the upcoming storm. There is more confidence now in a significant snowfall accumulation across the area of 5 – 9 inches. Some computer models are suggesting that the heaviest snow may not fall until late afternoon or early evening Wednesday, with rain or sleet mixing in early in the storm. My current thinking, however, is that the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning and be in effect through even the earlier parts of the day. All of this considered, I will raise the probability of impacts to 80% with an even split between the full closing and delayed opening scenarios.
Updated: 334 PM 19 MAR 2018
| Campus Opening | Campus Closing | Probability |
| Normal Time | Normal Time | 30% |
| Normal Time | Early | 40% |
| Late | Normal Time | 0% |
| Late | Early | 0% |
| Closed All Day | – | 30% |
Discussion:
The fourth nor’easter of the month will impact the region Wednesday. Numerical models have trended toward at least advisory level snow with some potential for warning level (> 6 inches). The timing of this event favors an early closing, seeing that snow intensity will increase throughout the morning and early afternoon. However, if the wetter solutions pan out, a full closing may happen.
Snowday Central 