| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: THU 22 MAR 2018 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 355 PM 22 MAR 2018
FULL CLOSING
Discussion:
It has been quite a winter. TVCSD closed today, making this the 5th snowday of the 2017-2018 academic year. This year now ranks second for most number of snowdays since 2009.
Snow totals of 15-20 inches have been observed across three village and neighboring towns, which is phenomenal for late march.
Updated: 1157 PM 21 MAR 2018
DELAYED OPENING
| Probability of a Full Closing | 65% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 35% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 100% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 0% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
At 1136 pm, 9.1 inches of snow was measured in Stony Brook, and snowfall rates of 4-5 inches per hour have been observed across many parts of the island. This is a truly remarkable snowband. Another 4-6 inches will likely fall before tapering off toward daybreak. I am increasing the probability of a full closing to 65%. This is on the conservative side out of respect for our previous failure to foresee the desire to not have any additional snowdays used.
Updated: 614 PM 21 MAR 2018
DELAYED OPENING
| Probability of a Full Closing | 30% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 70% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 100% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 0% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
As of 6 pm, a delayed opening is announced. The proximal school closings warrant increasing the full closing probability to 30%.
Updated: 359 PM 21 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 10% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 65% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 75% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 25% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
High resolution models are pointing toward moderate to heavy snow overnight, which will likely result in more roadway accumulations in spite of the solar angle this time of year. A delay is likely but not guaranteed. This is a low confidence forecast, but the best we can do for now.
Updated: 344 PM 20 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 10% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 50% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 60% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 40% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
Delays will be possible Thursday. This mainly depends on the time that snow ends, how much snow is on the ground, and how fast it melts. All factors considered, there is a moderate chance of impacts at this time.
Snowday Central 