| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: MON 04 MAR 2019 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 413 AM 04 MAR 2019
| Probability of a Full Closing | 40% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 60% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 100% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 0% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
Decreasing the probability of a full closing based on surface observations and the cancellation of the Winter Storm Warning.
Updated: 743 PM 03 MAR 2019
– DELAYED OPENING
| Probability of a Full Closing | 75% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 25% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 100% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 0% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
As of 6 pm EST, a delayed opening is announced.
Based on timing of when snow will taper off (~5 am), I will assume a threshold of 6 inches for a full closing. From the latest computer model guidance and trends, I am increasing the probability of a full closing to 75%.
Updated: 254 PM 03 MAR 2019
| Probability of a Full Closing | 65% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 30% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 95% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 5% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
Based on latest trends, increasing the probability of impacts to 95%. Leaning toward a full closing at this time based on an increasing likelihood of warning-criteria snowfall amounts. However, a delayed opening is still a possibility depending on when snow tapers off.
Updated: 628 PM 02 MAR 2019
| Probability of a Full Closing | 40% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 45% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 85% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 15% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
A low pressure center will pass offshore on Sunday night into Monday morning, which looks to be a mostly snow event for Central Long Island. Snow will taper off at about 5 am, leaving little time to improve road conditions before the morning commute. Based on the latest model guidance distribution of snowfall totals, I have increased the probability of impacts to 85%. I have split the difference more or less evenly between a full closing and delayed opening scenario, slightly favoring a delayed opening, since the center of the model guidance envelope suggests about 5 inches of snow, which is borderline for what would typically close school.
Updated: 1145 PM 01 MAR 2019
| Probability of a Full Closing | 40% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 30% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 70% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 30% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
A low pressure center will pass offshore on Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing wintery precipitation. The main question at this time is how much rain will mix in, limiting accumulations. Nonetheless, my thinking at this time is that this event will at least produce a delayed opening, as the probability of at least 2-3 inches of snow is high.
Snowday Central 